Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction : Evidences and Implication for Inflation Targeting in Indonesia
Abstract
Paper ini menganalisa interaksi kebijakan fiskal dan moneter di Indonesia pada masa sebelum dan sesudah krisis, dengan melakukan estimasi atas quasy fiscal activity (QFA) Bank Indonesia dan mengurai interaksi antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter. Penulis menemukan bahwa selama masa krisis, aktifitas ini (QFA) ada dan dilakukan oleh bank sentral Indonesia. Hal ini berbeda dengan masa sebelum krisis dimana QFA memiliki besaran yang netral. Dalam kaitan interaksi kebijakan fiskalmoneter, fakta ini menunjukkan dominasi kebijakan fiskal pada masa setelah krisis. Analisa interaksi antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter ini membawa implikasi kebijakan di Indonesia yakni perlunya disiplin dalam kebijakan fiskal dan perlunya komitmen untuk mempertahankan sustainability kebijakan tersebut. Kegagalan mencapai kebijakan fiskal yang optimal akan mengurangi efektifitas kebijakan moneter dalam rangka mengontrol inflasi meski dalam kerangka inflation targeting yang secara parsial sudah diimplementasikan oleh Bank Indonesia.
Keyword: Quasi Fiscal Activities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting
JEL: E11, E31, E52, E62
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References
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Hawkin, John (1999), “Bank Restructuring in South-East Asia”, BIS Policy Paper, September
Komulainen, Tuomas and Jukka Pirttilä (2000), “Fiscal Explanation for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies”, Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, No.11
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Loyo, E (1999), “Tight Money Paradox on the Loose: A Fiscalist Hyperinflation”, mimeo, Kennedy School of Government, June
Mackenzie, G.A. and Peter Stella (1996), “Quasi-Fiscal Operations of Public Financial Institution”, IMF Occasional Paper, 142, October
Markiewicz, Malgorzata, (2001), “Quasi-fiscal Operations of Central Banks in Transition Economies”, Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, No.2
Mihaljek, Dubravko and Bruno Tissot (2003), “Fiscal Positions in Emerging Economies: Central Bank’s Perspective”, BIS PapersNo.20, October
Moreno, Ramon (2003), “Fiscal Issues and Central Banking in Emerging Economies: an Overview”, BIS PapersNo.20, October
Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano (2003), “Debt Intolerance”, NBER Working Paper No. 9908, August
Rodriguez, Carlos A. (1994), “Argentina: Fiscal Disequilibria Leading to Hyperinflation”, in “Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Performance”, William E., Carlos A.R., an Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, eds, The World Bank
Sargent, Thomas and Neil Wallace (1981), “Some Unpleasent Monetarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 5, Fall 1-17
Simorangkir, Iskandar (2002), “Financial Deregulation and Demand for Money in Indonesia”, Buletin Ekonomi dan Perbankan Vol. 5 No.1, June, 1-17
Sims, Christhoper A. (2003), “Limit to Inflation Targeting”, mimeo, Princeton University
Stella, Peter (1997), “Do Central Banks Need Capital”, IMF Working Paper 83, July
Tanner, Evan and Alberto M. Ramos (2002), “Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary versus Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000, IMF Working Paper, No. 5, January
Van’t dack, Jozef (1999), “Implementing Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: An Overview of Issues”, BIS Policy Papers, No. 5, March
Walsh, Carl (2003), Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition, (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press)
Woodford, Michael (1996), “Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?”, NBER WP 5684
Woodford, Michael (2001),”Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33: 669-728
Zoli, Edda (2004), “How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Monetary Policy In Emerging Market Countries?”, BIS, draft
Bank for International Settlements (2004), “The Changing Interest rate Environment and Debt Sustainability in the Emerging Market Economies”, Note for non-G10 Governors meeting, 27 June
Bank Indonesia, Annual Report 1997/1998 and 1998/1999 issues
Blanchard, Olivier (2004), “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lesson from Brazil”, NBER WP 10389, March
Boediono (2004), “Kebijakan Fiskal: Sekarang dan Selanjutnya” (Current and Future Fiscal Policy), in Kebijakan Fiskal: Pemikiran, Konsep dan Implementasi (Fiscal Policy: Thought, Concept and Implementation), H. Subiantoro and S. Riphat, eds, Penerbit Buku Kompas, Jakarta
Beckerman, Paul (1995), “Central Bank ‘Distress’ and Hyperinflation in Argentina 1989-90”, Journal of Latin American Studies, 27, pp. 663-681
Budina, N., and Wijnbergen S., (2000), “Fiscal Deficit, Monetary Reform and Inflation Stabilization in Romania”, World Bank Working Paper Series no. 2298
Buiter, Willem H. (2004), “Fiscal Sustainability”, available at public.htm” http://www.nber.org/~wbuiter/ public.htm, 6 January
Buiter, Willem H. (2002), “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A Critique”, Economic Journal, Vol 112, July 2002, pp. 459-480
Buiter, Willem H. (2001) “The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again”, Bank of England Working Paper Series No. 141, July
Buiter, Willem H. (1999), “The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”, NBER Working Paper No. W7302, August
Buiter, Willem H. (1993), “Consistency Check for Fiscal, Financial and Monetary Policy Evaluation and Design”, mimeo, World Bank, October
Carlstrom, Charles T. and Timothy S. Fuerst (2000), “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level,” Economic Review, (Q I) pp. 22-32. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Carlstrom, Charles T. and Fuerst (1999), “Money Growth and Inflation: Does Fiscal Policy Matter?”, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, April 15
Campbell, John Y. (1987), “Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of The Permanent Income Hypothesis”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, November, pp. 1249-73
Canzoneri, Matthew B., Robert E. Cumby and Behzad T. Diba (2001), “Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?”, American Economic Review, 91(5), December, 1221-1238
Cochrane, John M (2003), “Fiscal Foundation of Monetary Regime” paper presented at 2003 NBER/NCAER Neemrana Conference, available at http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.cochrane/research/Papers/indiafiscal.pdf
Cochrane, John M (1998), “A Cashless View of U.S. Inflation,” in Be S. Bernanke and Julio Rotemberg, eds., NBER Macroeconomic Annual Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, pp.323-84
Favero, Carlo A. and Fransesco Giavazzi (2004), “Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lesson from Brazil”, NBER WP 10389, March
Hawkin, John (2004), “Central Bank Securities and Government Debt”, paper presented to Australasian Macroeconomic Workshop Australian National University, Canberra, 15-16 April
Hawkin, John (1999), “Bank Restructuring in South-East Asia”, BIS Policy Paper, September
Komulainen, Tuomas and Jukka Pirttilä (2000), “Fiscal Explanation for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies”, Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, No.11
Koncherlakota, Narayana and Christhoper Phelan (1999), “Explaining the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level,” Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 23, 14-23
Leeper, Eric M. (1991), “Equilibria under ‘Active’ and ‘Passive’ Monetary and Fiscal Policies”, Journal of Monetary Economics,27, February, 129-147
Loyo, E (1999), “Tight Money Paradox on the Loose: A Fiscalist Hyperinflation”, mimeo, Kennedy School of Government, June
Mackenzie, G.A. and Peter Stella (1996), “Quasi-Fiscal Operations of Public Financial Institution”, IMF Occasional Paper, 142, October
Markiewicz, Malgorzata, (2001), “Quasi-fiscal Operations of Central Banks in Transition Economies”, Bank of Finland Discussion Papers, No.2
Mihaljek, Dubravko and Bruno Tissot (2003), “Fiscal Positions in Emerging Economies: Central Bank’s Perspective”, BIS PapersNo.20, October
Moreno, Ramon (2003), “Fiscal Issues and Central Banking in Emerging Economies: an Overview”, BIS PapersNo.20, October
Reinhart, Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano (2003), “Debt Intolerance”, NBER Working Paper No. 9908, August
Rodriguez, Carlos A. (1994), “Argentina: Fiscal Disequilibria Leading to Hyperinflation”, in “Public Sector Deficits and Macroeconomic Performance”, William E., Carlos A.R., an Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, eds, The World Bank
Sargent, Thomas and Neil Wallace (1981), “Some Unpleasent Monetarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 5, Fall 1-17
Simorangkir, Iskandar (2002), “Financial Deregulation and Demand for Money in Indonesia”, Buletin Ekonomi dan Perbankan Vol. 5 No.1, June, 1-17
Sims, Christhoper A. (2003), “Limit to Inflation Targeting”, mimeo, Princeton University
Stella, Peter (1997), “Do Central Banks Need Capital”, IMF Working Paper 83, July
Tanner, Evan and Alberto M. Ramos (2002), “Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary versus Fiscal Dominance: Evidence from Brazil, 1991-2000, IMF Working Paper, No. 5, January
Van’t dack, Jozef (1999), “Implementing Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: An Overview of Issues”, BIS Policy Papers, No. 5, March
Walsh, Carl (2003), Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition, (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press)
Woodford, Michael (1996), “Control of the Public Debt: A Requirement for Price Stability?”, NBER WP 5684
Woodford, Michael (2001),”Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33: 669-728
Zoli, Edda (2004), “How Does Fiscal Policy Affect Monetary Policy In Emerging Market Countries?”, BIS, draft
Published
2005-05-20
How to Cite
Mochtar, F. (2005). Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction : Evidences and Implication for Inflation Targeting in Indonesia. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 7(3), 359 - 386. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v7i3.114
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
