DETERMINANT OF BANK RUNS IN INDONESIA: BAD LUCK OR FUNDAMENTAL?
Keywords:
Bank runs, Banking Crisis, Arrelano Bond Dynamic Panel
Abstract
This paper examine the determinant of bank runs in Indonesia that includes economic fundamental,bank performance, and self-fulfilling prophecy factors for all banks either in full sample periods between years 1990 - 2005 or in banking crisis periods between years 1997 - 1998. The bank runs determinant uses dynamic panel model from Arrelano-Bond. Estimation result shows that self-fulfilling prophecy, bank monetary performance which is rentability and fixed credit ratio and macroeconomic condition which is economic growth, inflation and real exchange rate influence bank runs in Indonesia. Bank runs determinant in banking crisis between year 1997 - 1998 also shows a result that is not really different from bank runs determinant during full sample periods between years 1990 - 2005.
Downloads
Download data is not yet available.
References
Aharony, Joseph, and Itzhak Swary. Contagion Effects of Bank Failures: Evidence from Capital Markets. The Journal of Business, July 1983, 56(3), pp. 305-322.
Allen, Franklin, and Douglas Gale. Optimal Financial Crises The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No.4, Papers and Proceedings of the Fifty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Finance
Association, Chicago, Illinois, January 3-5, 1998 (Aug., 1998), pp. 1245-1284.
______. Bubbles and Crises. The Economic Journal, Vol. 110, No. 460 (Jan., 2000), hal. 236-255.
______. Financial Contagion. The Journal of Political Economy, February 2000, 108(1), pp. 1-33.
Bank Indonesia, Annual Report of Bank Indonesia from 1997/1998 until 2007.
Bryant, John. "Bank Collapse and Depression" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Nov., 1981), pp. 454-464.
Calomiris, Charles W. Bank Failures in Theory and History: The Great Depression and Other Contagious Events. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 13597, November 2007.
______, dan Gary Gorton.The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation. Dalam R. G. Hubbard, Financial markets and Financial Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, hal. 109-173, 1991.
Canova, Fabio. Were Financial Crises Predictable? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 26, 1 (Februari 1994), hal. 102-124.
D'Amato, Laura, Elena Grubisic dan Andrew Powell, 1997, "Contagion, Bank Fundamentals or Macroeconomic Shock? An Empirical Analysis of the Argentine 1995 Banking Problems", 1997, Banco Central de la República Argentina Working Paper Number 2, July 1997.
Davis, E. Philip dan Dilruba Karim. "Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises". Working Paper Brunel University dan NIESR West London, 2007.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli dan Detragiache, Enrica. The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries.
IMF Working Paper, No. WP/97/106, September 1997. Determinant of Bank Runs In Indonesia: Bad Luck or Fundamental? 73
Diamond, Douglas W. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk". The Quaterly Journal of Economics, August 1991, 106(3), pp. 709-737.
______, dan Philip H. Dybvig, "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy, June 1983, 91(3), hal. 401-419.
Kaufman, George G. "Bank Runs: Causes, Benefits and Costs." Cato Journal 2, no. 3 (Winter 1988): 559-88.
______. "The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics di website" http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BankRuns.html mimeo.
Kindleberger, C. P. Manias, Panics and Crashes. Basic Books, New York, 1978.
Lindgren, Carl-Johan; Garcia, Gillian, Garcia; dan Saal, Matthew I. "Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy". IMF, 1996.
McCandless, George, Maria F. Gabrielli, Maria J. Rouillet, 2003, "Determining the Causes of Bank Runs in Argentina During the Crisis of 2001", Revista De Analisis Economico, Vol. 18, No. 1, Banco Central de la República Argentina.
Minsky, Hyman. "A Theory-of System Fragility", dalam Edward Altman dan Arnold Sametz (ed.), Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Financial Environment, New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1977.
Mishkin, Frederic S. Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 5600, Mei 1996.
Safuan, Sugiharso. Contagion and Interdependence in the Asian Crisis. Proceedings Seminar Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan, Bank Indonesia. Jakarta, 27 Agustus 2003.
Warjiyo, Perry. "Bank Failure Management: The Case of Indonesia", APEC Policy Dialogue on Bank Failure Management Paper, Mexico, June 7-8, 2001.
Allen, Franklin, and Douglas Gale. Optimal Financial Crises The Journal of Finance, Vol. 53, No.4, Papers and Proceedings of the Fifty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the American Finance
Association, Chicago, Illinois, January 3-5, 1998 (Aug., 1998), pp. 1245-1284.
______. Bubbles and Crises. The Economic Journal, Vol. 110, No. 460 (Jan., 2000), hal. 236-255.
______. Financial Contagion. The Journal of Political Economy, February 2000, 108(1), pp. 1-33.
Bank Indonesia, Annual Report of Bank Indonesia from 1997/1998 until 2007.
Bryant, John. "Bank Collapse and Depression" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Nov., 1981), pp. 454-464.
Calomiris, Charles W. Bank Failures in Theory and History: The Great Depression and Other Contagious Events. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 13597, November 2007.
______, dan Gary Gorton.The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation. Dalam R. G. Hubbard, Financial markets and Financial Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, hal. 109-173, 1991.
Canova, Fabio. Were Financial Crises Predictable? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 26, 1 (Februari 1994), hal. 102-124.
D'Amato, Laura, Elena Grubisic dan Andrew Powell, 1997, "Contagion, Bank Fundamentals or Macroeconomic Shock? An Empirical Analysis of the Argentine 1995 Banking Problems", 1997, Banco Central de la República Argentina Working Paper Number 2, July 1997.
Davis, E. Philip dan Dilruba Karim. "Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises". Working Paper Brunel University dan NIESR West London, 2007.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli dan Detragiache, Enrica. The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries.
IMF Working Paper, No. WP/97/106, September 1997. Determinant of Bank Runs In Indonesia: Bad Luck or Fundamental? 73
Diamond, Douglas W. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk". The Quaterly Journal of Economics, August 1991, 106(3), pp. 709-737.
______, dan Philip H. Dybvig, "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy, June 1983, 91(3), hal. 401-419.
Kaufman, George G. "Bank Runs: Causes, Benefits and Costs." Cato Journal 2, no. 3 (Winter 1988): 559-88.
______. "The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics di website" http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BankRuns.html mimeo.
Kindleberger, C. P. Manias, Panics and Crashes. Basic Books, New York, 1978.
Lindgren, Carl-Johan; Garcia, Gillian, Garcia; dan Saal, Matthew I. "Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy". IMF, 1996.
McCandless, George, Maria F. Gabrielli, Maria J. Rouillet, 2003, "Determining the Causes of Bank Runs in Argentina During the Crisis of 2001", Revista De Analisis Economico, Vol. 18, No. 1, Banco Central de la República Argentina.
Minsky, Hyman. "A Theory-of System Fragility", dalam Edward Altman dan Arnold Sametz (ed.), Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Financial Environment, New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1977.
Mishkin, Frederic S. Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 5600, Mei 1996.
Safuan, Sugiharso. Contagion and Interdependence in the Asian Crisis. Proceedings Seminar Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan, Bank Indonesia. Jakarta, 27 Agustus 2003.
Warjiyo, Perry. "Bank Failure Management: The Case of Indonesia", APEC Policy Dialogue on Bank Failure Management Paper, Mexico, June 7-8, 2001.
Published
2011-12-07
How to Cite
Simorangkir, I. (2011). DETERMINANT OF BANK RUNS IN INDONESIA: BAD LUCK OR FUNDAMENTAL?. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 14(1), 51-73. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.78
Issue
Section
Articles
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
