PENYEBAB BANK RUNS DI INDONESIA: BAD LUCK ATAU FUNDAMENTAL?
Abstract
Bank runs and banking crisis has been a global cycling phenomenon both in developed and developing countries. This paper provide comprehensive analysis of the bank run determinant in Indonesia, including the economic fundamental, bank performance and self fulfilling prophecy during the period of 1990-2005, using the dynamic panel estimation of Arrelano-Bond. The Result shows that the self-fulfilling prophecy, bank performance (rentability, non performing loan) and macroeconomic condition (output growth, inflation and real interest rate), determine the bank runs in Indonesia. This conclusion is robust both for the sample period of 1997-1998 and 1990-2005.
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References
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______. Bubbles and Crises. The Economic Journal, Vol. 110, No. 460 (Jan., 2000), hal. 236-255.
______.2000, Financial Contagion. The Journal of Political Economy, February 2000, 108(1), pp. 1-33.
Bank Indonesia, Annual Report of Bank Indonesia from 1997/1998 until 2007.
Bryant, John. 1981, "Bank Collapse and Depression" Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 13, No. 4 (Nov., 1981), pp. 454-464.
Calomiris, Charles W. Bank Failures in Theory and History: The Great Depression and Other Contagious Events. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 13597, November 2007.
______, 1991, dan Gary Gorton.The Origins of Banking Panics: Models, Facts, and Bank Regulation. Dalam R. G. Hubbard, Financial markets and Financial Crisis. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, hal. 109-173, 1991.
Canova, Fabio. Were Financial Crises Predictable? Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 26, 1 (Februari 1994), hal. 102-124.
D'Amato, Laura, Elena Grubisic dan Andrew Powell, 1997, "Contagion, Bank Fundamentals or Macroeconomic Shock? An Empirical Analysis of the Argentine 1995 Banking Problems", 1997, Banco Central de la República Argentina Working Paper Number 2, July 1997.
Davis, E. Philip dan Dilruba Karim. "Comparing Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises". Working Paper Brunel University dan NIESR West London, 2007.
Demirguc-Kunt, Asli dan Detragiache, Enrica. The Determinants of Banking Crises: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries. IMF Working Paper, No. WP/97/106, September 1997.
Diamond, Douglas W. "Debt Maturity Structure and Liquidity Risk". The Quaterly Journal of Economics, August 1991, 106(3), pp. 709-737.
______, dan Philip H. Dybvig, "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity." Journal of Political Economy, June 1983, 91(3), hal. 401-419.
Kaufman, George G. "Bank Runs: Causes, Benefits and Costs." Cato Journal 2, no. 3 (Winter 1988): 559-88.
______. "The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics di website" http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BankRuns.html mimeo.
Kindleberger, C. P. Manias, Panics and Crashes. Basic Books, New York, 1978.
Lindgren, Carl-Johan; Garcia, Gillian, Garcia; dan Saal, Matthew I. "Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy". IMF, 1996.
McCandless, George, Maria F. Gabrielli, Maria J. Rouillet, 2003, "Determining the Causes of Bank Runs in Argentina During the Crisis of 2001", Revista De Analisis Economico, Vol. 18, No. 1, Banco Central de la República Argentina.
Minsky, Hyman. "A Theory-of System Fragility", dalam Edward Altman dan Arnold Sametz (ed.), Financial Crises: Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Financial Environment, New York: Wiley-Interscience, 1977.
Mishkin, Frederic S. Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective. NBER Working Paper Series, No. WP 5600, Mei 1996.
Safuan, Sugiharso. Contagion and Interdependence in the Asian Crisis. Proceedings Seminar Pusat Pendidikan dan Studi Kebanksentralan, Bank Indonesia. Jakarta, 27 Agustus 2003.
Warjiyo, Perry. "Bank Failure Management: The Case of Indonesia", APEC Policy Dialogue on Bank Failure Management Paper, Mexico, June 7-8, 2001.
Published
2011-12-07
How to Cite
Simorangkir, I. (2011). PENYEBAB BANK RUNS DI INDONESIA: BAD LUCK ATAU FUNDAMENTAL?. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 14(1), 51-78. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.456
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
