KEMUNGKINAN PENERAPAN KEBIJAKAN ARUS MODAL JANGKA PENDEK DAN DAMPAKNYA BAGI STABILITAS NILAI TUKAR
Abstract
Krisis di Asia diwarnai dengan arus modal keluar netto (net capital outflows) dalam jumlah yang sangat besar dan dalam waktu yang relatif singkat telah mendorong perhatian internasional yang lebih besar pada destabilizing effect dari arus modal jangka pendek terhadap perekonomian. Arus modal dalam bentuk pinjaman bank-bank komersial ke negara-negara kawasan Asia pada periode krisis mengalami penurunan drastic dari arus masuk bersih (net inflows) sebesar US$ 80,1 milyar tahun 1996 menjadi arus modal keluar bersih (net outflows) sebesar US$14,5 milyar pada tahun 1997 dan net outflows sebesar US$59,6 miliar pada tahun 1998. Krisis tersebut telah mendorong beberapa negara berkembang mulai meninjau kembali kebijakan-kebijakannya yang berkaitan dengan control devisa dan aliran modal (exchange and capital control) dalam rangka mengantisipasi dan meminimumkan resiko yang akan dihadapi dalam transaksi modal, khususnya arus modal jangka pendek yang diduga sebagai pemicu terjadinya kekacauan dalam sistem keuangan global. Pemberlakuan kontrol modal menjadi perdebatan di kalangan ekonom domestik dan internasional, terlebih kini IMF tengah dalam proses mempersiapkan ketentuan mengenai capital account convertability.
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