PERILAKU NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN ALTERNATIF PERHITUNGAN NILAI TUKAR RIIL KESEIMBANGAN
Abstract
Dalam dua dekade terakhir, Bank Indonesia telah melakukan beberapa kali perubahan sistem nilai tukar (exchange rate arrangement). Sebagaimana kita ketahui, sejak tahun 1978 sistem nilai tukar Indonesia bergerak semakin fleksibel dengan kisaran intervensi yang semakin diperlebar hingga akhirnya dihapuskan pada bulan Agustus 1997.
Proses pelebaran kisaran intervensi secara bertahap sampai dengan dihapuskannya kisaran tersebut berpengaruh pada prilaku nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap valuta asing, khususnya mata uang mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Semakin fleksibel suatu nilai tukar akan semakin sulit memprediksi pergerakan nilai tukar. Hal ini dimungkinkan karena pergerakan nilai tukar yang berdasarkan kekuatan permintaan dan penawaran valuta asing di pasar juga dipengaruhi oleh perubahan ekspektasi pasar yang pembentukannya tergantung pada berbagai variabel ekonomi maupun non-ekonomi.
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