PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA
Abstract
This paper investigates the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the economic growth in Indonesia. The model applied considers both the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply interaction and the impact of the exchange rate volatility channeled through the investment and trade.
The result shows the negative impact of the exchange rate volatility either in nominal or in real, on the economic growth. Both nominal and real exchange rate volatility dampens the investment. However, the nominal exchange rate volatility lowers import while the real one lowers export and at the other side boosts import.
Keywords: Economic growth, exchange rate.
JEL Classification: F31, O11, O40
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References
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Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim dan Diebold, Francis X. “Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement.” NBER Technical Working Paper, No. 279, 2002.
Bacchetta, Philippe dan Wincoop, Eric van. “Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?” The American Economic Review, Desember 2000, 90(5), 1093-1109.
Bailliu, Jeannine; Lafrance, Robert dan Perrault, Jean-François. “Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?” Bank of Canada Working Paper, No. 2002-17, 2002.
Bank Indonesia. General Equilibrium Model of Bank Indonesia (GEMBI) 2005. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia, 2005.
Baxter, Marianne dan Stockman, Alan C. “Business Cycles and The Exchange-Rate Regime: Some International Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Mei 1989, 23(3), 377-400.
Bayoumi, Tamim dan Eichengreen, Barry. “Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse Response Analysis.” The Economic Journal, Juli 1994, 104(425), 813-827.
Blanchard, Olivier Jean dan Quah, Danny. “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances.” The American Economic Review, September 1989, 79(4), 655-673.
Bollerslev, Tim. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic.” Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 31, 307-327.
Campa, Jose M. dan Goldberg, Linda S. “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure.” Journal of International Economics, 1995, 38, 297-320.
Campa, Jose M. dan Goldberg, Linda S. “Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison.” International Economic Review, Mei 1999, 40(2), 287-314.
Dubas, Justin M.; Lee, Byung-Joo dan Mark, Nelson C. “Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth.” NBER Working Paper, No. 11272, 2005.
Flood, Robert P. dan Rose, Andrew K. “Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, 3-37.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. “Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies.” NBER Working Paper, No. 10032, 2003.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. dan Romer, David. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” The American Economic Review, Juni 1999, 89(3), 379-399.
Ghosh, Atish R.; Gulde, Anne-Marie dan Wolf, Holger C. Exchange Rate Regime: Choices and Consequences. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2002.
Gottschalk, Jan. “An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR Models.” Kiel Working Paper, No. 1072, 2001.
Hallwood, C. Paul dan MacDonald, Ronald. International Money and Finance. Edisi ke-3. Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishers Inc, 2002.
Ito, Takatoshi, et. al. “Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region.” IMF Occasional Paper, No. 145, 1996.
Ito, Takatoshi dan Krueger, Anne O. Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995.
Kandil, Magda dan Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas. “The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries.” IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/200, 2003.
Krueger, Anne O. “East Asian Experience and Endogenous Growth Theory,” dalam Takatoshi Ito dan Anne O. Krueger. Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995, 9-36.
Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo dan Sturzenegger, Federico. “To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth.” The American Economic Review, November 2003, 93(4), 1173-1193.
Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Husain, Aasim M.; Mody, Ashoka; Brooks, Robin J. dan Oomes, Nienke. “Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes.” IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/243, 2003.
Romer, David. Advanced Macroeconomics. Edisi ke-2. Singapore: McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2001.
Sims, Christopher. “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica, Januari 1980, 48, 1-49.
Voivodas, Constantin S. “The Effect of Foreign Exchange Instability on Growth.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Agustus 1974, 56(3), 410-412.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2002.
Zainal, Arindra A. Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Evidence from Indonesian Data, An ARDL Approach. Jakarta: FEUI, 2004.
Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim dan Diebold, Francis X. “Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement.” NBER Technical Working Paper, No. 279, 2002.
Bacchetta, Philippe dan Wincoop, Eric van. “Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?” The American Economic Review, Desember 2000, 90(5), 1093-1109.
Bailliu, Jeannine; Lafrance, Robert dan Perrault, Jean-François. “Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?” Bank of Canada Working Paper, No. 2002-17, 2002.
Bank Indonesia. General Equilibrium Model of Bank Indonesia (GEMBI) 2005. Jakarta: Bank Indonesia, 2005.
Baxter, Marianne dan Stockman, Alan C. “Business Cycles and The Exchange-Rate Regime: Some International Evidence.” Journal of Monetary Economics, Mei 1989, 23(3), 377-400.
Bayoumi, Tamim dan Eichengreen, Barry. “Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Bretton Woods and the Post-Bretton-Woods Float: An Impulse Response Analysis.” The Economic Journal, Juli 1994, 104(425), 813-827.
Blanchard, Olivier Jean dan Quah, Danny. “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances.” The American Economic Review, September 1989, 79(4), 655-673.
Bollerslev, Tim. “Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic.” Journal of Econometrics, 1986, 31, 307-327.
Campa, Jose M. dan Goldberg, Linda S. “Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange Rates and External Exposure.” Journal of International Economics, 1995, 38, 297-320.
Campa, Jose M. dan Goldberg, Linda S. “Investment, Pass-Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Comparison.” International Economic Review, Mei 1999, 40(2), 287-314.
Dubas, Justin M.; Lee, Byung-Joo dan Mark, Nelson C. “Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth.” NBER Working Paper, No. 11272, 2005.
Flood, Robert P. dan Rose, Andrew K. “Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 1995, 36, 3-37.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. “Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Economies.” NBER Working Paper, No. 10032, 2003.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. dan Romer, David. “Does Trade Cause Growth?” The American Economic Review, Juni 1999, 89(3), 379-399.
Ghosh, Atish R.; Gulde, Anne-Marie dan Wolf, Holger C. Exchange Rate Regime: Choices and Consequences. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2002.
Gottschalk, Jan. “An Introduction into the SVAR Methodology: Identification, Interpretation and Limitations of SVAR Models.” Kiel Working Paper, No. 1072, 2001.
Hallwood, C. Paul dan MacDonald, Ronald. International Money and Finance. Edisi ke-3. Massachusetts: Blackwell Publishers Inc, 2002.
Ito, Takatoshi, et. al. “Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region.” IMF Occasional Paper, No. 145, 1996.
Ito, Takatoshi dan Krueger, Anne O. Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995.
Kandil, Magda dan Mirzaie, Ida Aghdas. “The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries.” IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/200, 2003.
Krueger, Anne O. “East Asian Experience and Endogenous Growth Theory,” dalam Takatoshi Ito dan Anne O. Krueger. Growth Theories in Light of the East Asian Experience. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1995, 9-36.
Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo dan Sturzenegger, Federico. “To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth.” The American Economic Review, November 2003, 93(4), 1173-1193.
Rogoff, Kenneth S.; Husain, Aasim M.; Mody, Ashoka; Brooks, Robin J. dan Oomes, Nienke. “Evolution and Performance of Exchange Rate Regimes.” IMF Working Paper, No. WP/03/243, 2003.
Romer, David. Advanced Macroeconomics. Edisi ke-2. Singapore: McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2001.
Sims, Christopher. “Macroeconomics and Reality.” Econometrica, Januari 1980, 48, 1-49.
Voivodas, Constantin S. “The Effect of Foreign Exchange Instability on Growth.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, Agustus 1974, 56(3), 410-412.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: The MIT Press, 2002.
Zainal, Arindra A. Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance: Evidence from Indonesian Data, An ARDL Approach. Jakarta: FEUI, 2004.
Published
2008-04-15
How to Cite
Suselo, S. L., Sihaloho, H. D., & Tarsidin, T. (2008). PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 10(3), 181 -. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v10i3.225
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
