CAPITAL FLOWS DI INDONESIA: PERILAKU, PERAN, DAN OPTIMALITAS PENGGUNAANNYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN
Abstract
Berlimpahnya likuiditas global paska krisis global mengakibatkan membanjirnya aliran modal internasional ke pasar Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Selain bermanfaat, aliran modal asing tersebut,berpotensi menimbul risiko pembalikan aliran modal asing yang dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan di pasar keuangan domestik. Paper ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investasi investor asing, yang mencakup faktor risiko dan return yang berasal dari domestik (pull factor) dan global (push factor). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan push factor sangat berperan mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SUN. Bagi investor long-term, perilaku mereka untuk menempatkan dananya di pasar SUN dipengaruhi push factor, tetapi tidak dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh pull factor. Namun bagi investor short-term, baik pull maupun push factor, mempengaruhi keputusan investasi mereka. Selain itu hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa ke depan, prospek investor asing di pasar SUN masih menghadapi tantangan khususnya dari sisi volatilitas yang relatif tinggi sebagai akibat dari sensitifnya investor asing terhadap shock yang sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan internasional akibat penyelesaian krisis utang di negara maju yang berlarut-larut. Dalam hal ini, Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah perlu terus mempertahankan upaya untuk menjaga dan mengelola return dan risiko investasi di dalam negeri pada level yang lebih kompetitif dan relatif rendah dengan menjaga kekuatan dan ketangguhan perekonomian serta stabilitas keuangan domestik.
Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.
JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3
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