KONVERGENSI PENERIMAAN DAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN DATA PANEL DINAMIS SPASIAL
Abstract
The study analyse sigma and beta convergence of provincial government revenues and expenditures in Indonesia (APBD) by using panel data 30 provinces over the period 2000-2012. The variables used in this study consists of real income per capita and the revenues and expenditures variables in the APBD. The study also included a spatial weights matrix to analyse dependency among provinces. Spatial weights matrix used consists of two types of weights, the real income per capita and the geographical distance. Testing for the presence of spatial dependency performed using Moran’s I. The model used in this study are spatial autoregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM). The models are estimated using panel least squares, fixed effects, random effects, as well as both GMM first difference (GMM-DIFF) and system GMM (GMM-SYS). Based on sigma convergence approach, the results of the study showed that during the period of 2000-2012 occurred convergence on total revenue, income, tax, fund balance, total spending, employee spending, and goods spending, but not for the real income per capita. Estimation with beta convergence approach conducted on four variables as each sample (in per capita value), namely: total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimation with beta convergence is done by using additional explanatory variables which include: economic growth, the degree of openness, as well as economic growth. Based on the beta convergence approach, the study results indicate the occurrence of convergence on total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimates also lead to the conclusion that there are spatial dependencies between provinces either use distance and income per capita weight.
Keywords: Sigma and Beta convergence, spatial weights, panel data, revenue and expenditure, the provincial budget (APBD)
JEL Classification: H7,R1
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References
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Afxentiou, Panos C. dan Apostolos Serletis. 1999. “Testing for Government Spending Convergence Across Canadian Provinces”. Public Finance Review. Vol. 16.
Agha, Salima B. dan Lionel Vedrine. 2009. “Estimation Strategies for Spatial Dynamic Panel using GMM. A New Approach to the Convergence Issue of European Regions”. Paper. 8th Workshopof Spatial Econometrics. Besancon. France.
Ahmad, Mahyudin dan Stephen G. Hall. 2012. “Institutions and Growth: Testing the Spatial Effect Using Weight Matrix Based in the Institutional Distance Concept”. MRPA Paper. No. 42294. Munich.
Anselin, Luc (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Kluwer Academic Publishers Inc. Dordrecht. Netherland.
Arbia, Giuseppe (2006). Spatial Econometrics: Statistical Foundations andApplications to Regional Convergence. Springer-Verlag. Heidelberg.
Arbia, Giuseppe dan Badi H. Baltagi (2009). Spatial Econometrics Methods and Applications. Physica-Verlag. Heidelberg.
Arbia, Giuseppe, Roberto Basile, dan Mirella Salvatore. 2002. “Regional Convergence in Italy 1951-1999: A Spatial Econometric Perpspective”. ISAE Paper. Annual Congress of the European Economic Association.
Aritenang, Adiwan F. 2009. “The Impact of Government Budget Shifts to Regional Disparities in Indonesia: Before and After Decentralisation.” Paper. IDPR Anniversary Symposium. MRPA
Paper No. 25243. Muenchen
Aroca, Patricio, Dong Guo, dan Geoffrey Hewings. 2006. “Spatial Convergence in China: 1952-99”. Research Paper No. 2006/89. World Institute for Development Economics Research. United Nations University.
Barrientos, Paola. 2007. “Theory, History and Evidence of Economic Convergence in Latin America”. Institute for Advanced Development Studies. Development Research Working Paper Series. No. 13/2007.
Barro, Robert J. dan Xavier Sala-i-Martin. 1992. “Convergence”. Journal of Political Economy. 100(2): 223-251.
Battaglini, Marcodan Stephen Coate. 2006. “A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation and Debt”. Working Paper.
Battisti, Michele dan Gianfranco Di Vaio. 2006. “A Spatially Filtrered Mixture of β-convergence regressions for EU Regions, 1980-2002”. Dalam: Arbia, Giuseppe dan Badi H. Baltagi (2009).
Spatial Econometrics Methods and Applications. Physica-Verlag. Heidelberg.
Bun, Maurice J. G. dan Vasilis Sarafidis. 2013.”Dynamic Panel Data Models”. Working Paper 2013/01. Amsterdam School of Economics. Universiteit van Amsterdam.
Coughlin, Cletus C., Thomas A. Garret, dan Ruben Henandez-Murillo. 2006. “Spatial Dependeces in Model of State Fiscal Policy Convergence”. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Research
Division. St. Louis.
Estrada, Angel, Jordi Gali, dan David Lopez-Salido. 2012. “Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area”. Paper 13th Jaques Polak Annual Research Conference. IMF.
Washington.
Feldkircher, Martin. 2006. “Regional Convergence within the EU-25: A Spatial Econometric Analysis”. Paper Proceeding of OeNB Workshops.
Firdaus, Muhammad dan Zulkornain Yusop. 2009. “Dynamic Analysis of Regional Convergence in Indonesia”. International Journal of Economics and Management. Vol. 3.
Fischer, Manfred M. dan Jinfeng Wang (2011). Spatial Data Analysis Models, Methods, Techniques. Springer Heidelberg.
Han, Chirok dan Peter C.B. Philips. 2010. “GMM Estimation for Dynamic Panels with Fixed Effects and Strong Instruments at Unity”. Econometric Theory Vol. 26. Cowles Foundation Paper No. 1290. Yale University.
Hayakawa, Kazuhiko. 2009. “First Difference or Forward Orthogonal Deviation- Which Transformation Should be Used in Dynamic Panel Data Models?: A Simulation Study”. Economics Bulletin. Vol. 29 No. 3.
Iancu, Aurel 2007. “Economic Convergence Applications”. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting. Vol. 4.
Islam, Nazrul. 2003. “What Have We Learnt from The Convergence Debate?”. Journal of Economic Surveys. Vol. 17 No. 3.
Ivanova, Vera. 2012. “Economic Growth of Russian Regions”. Paper. NRU Higher School of Economics.
Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu dan Shao-Wei Lee. 2013. “Evidence on the Convergence of Percapita Income: A Comparison of Founder Members of the Association of South Asian Nations and
the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation”. Pacific Economic Review. 18(1): 108-121.
Kharisma, Bayu dan Samsubar Saleh. 2013. “Convergence of Income Among Provinces in Indonesia 1984-2008: A Panel Data Approach”. Journal of Indonesian Economy & Business. Vol. 28. No. 2.
Kosfeld, Reinbold dan Jorgen Lauridsen. 2009. “Dynamic Spatial of Regional Convergence Process”. Dalam: Arbia, Giuseppe dan Badi H. Baltagi (2009). Spatial Econometrics Methods and Applications. Physica-Verlag. Heidelberg.
Kuncoro, Mudrajad. 2013. “Economic Geography of Indonesia: Can MP3EI Reduce InterRegional Inequality?”. South East Asia Journal of Cotemporary Business, Economic and Law. Vol. 2. Issue 2 (June).
Kurz-Kim, Jeong R. dan Mico Loretan. 2007. “A Note on the Coefficient of Determination in Regression Models with Infinite-Variance Variables”. Working Paper No. 10/2007. Deutsche Bundesbank.
Lall, Somik dan Serdar Yilmaz. 2000. “Regional Economic Convergence: Do Policy Instruments Make a Difference?”. IBRD. World Bank Institute. Washington.
Madariaga, Nicole, Sylvie Montout, dan Patrice Allivaud. 2005. “Regional Convergence and Agglomeration in Argentina: A Spatial Panel Data Approach”. Centre National De La Recherche Scientifique Working Paper. Universite Paris 1. Pantheon. Sorbonne.
Mankiw, N. Gregory (2013). Macroeconomics. Eighth Edition.Worth Publishers. New York.
Marques, Alfredo dan Elias Soukiazis. 1998. “Per Capita Income Convergence Across Countries and Across Region in The European Union: Some New Evidence”. Paper 2nd International Meeting of European Economy. CEDIN (ISEG). Lisbon.
Martinho, Vitor J. P.D. 2011. “Spatial Effects and Convergence Theory in the Portuguese Situation”. MRPA Paper. No. 32185. Munich.
Monfort, Philippe. 2008. “Convergence of EU Regions Measures and Evolution”. Working Paper European Union Regional Policy. No. 01/2008.
Paas, Tiiu, Andres Kuusk, Friso Schlitte, dan Andres Vork. 2007. Econometric Analysis of Income in Selected EU Countries and Their NUT 3 Level Regions. Tartu University Press. Tartu. Turkey.
Nandy, Anindita. 2003. “Regional Disparities in India: An Empirical Analysis of Convergence Hypothesis”. Working Paper. Jawaharlal Nehru University.
Onder, A Ozlem, Metin Karadag, dan Ertugrul Deliktas. 2007. “The Effect of Public Capital on Regional Convergence in Turkey”. Working Paper in Economics. No. 07/01. Ege University. Turkey.
Piras, G dan G. Arbia. 2007. “Convergence in Per Capita GDP Across EU-NUTS2 Regions Using Panel Data Models Extended to Spatial Autocorrelations Effects”. Statistica. No. 2.
Pritchett, Lant. 1996. “Forget Convergence: Divergence Past, Present, and Future”. Finance & Development. Vol. 33. No. 2.
Rey, Sergio J dan Brett D. Mountouri (1998). “US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective”. Regional Studies. Vol. 33.2.
Roodman, David. 2009. “How to do xtabond2: An Introduction to Difference and System GMM in Stata”. The Stata Journal. Vol. 9. No. 1.
Royuela, Vincente dan Gustavo A. Garcia. 2010. “Economic and Social Convergence in Columbia”. Working Paper No. 2010/4. Research Institute of Applied Economics. Universitat de Barcelona.
Russo, Benjamin. 2002. “Taxes, the Speed of Convergence, and Implications for Welfare Effect of Fiscal Policy”. Southern Economic Journal. Vol. 69. No. 2.
Sarue, Naci Tolga, Isa Sagbas, dan Ismail Cigerci. 2007. “The GeographicalDistribution of Public Expenditures and Tax Revenues in the TurkishCase: A Convergence Analysis”. Proceedings. Third International Conference on Business, Management, and Economics. Cesme, Izmir, Turkey.
Schmitt, Carina dan Peter Starke. 2011. “Explaining Convergence of OECD Welfare States: A Conditional Approach”. Journal of European Social Policy. 21(2).
Skidmore, Mark. 2005. “Convergence in Local Government Spending: Evidence from Wisconsin”. Agricultural & Applied Economics Staff Paper No. 483. University of Wisconsin. Madison.
Skidmore, Mark dan Steven Deller. 2008. “Is Local Government Spending Converging?”. Eastern Economic Journal. Vol. 34.
Skidmore, Mark, Hideki Toya, dan David Merriman. 2003. “Convergence in Government Spending: Theory and Cross Country Evidence”. Kyklos. No. 57.
Viton, Philip A. 2010. Notes on Spatial Econometric Models. City and Regional Planning.No. 870.03.
Yu, Jihai dan Lung-Fei Lee 2012. “Convergence: A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Approach”. Global Journal of Economics. World Scientific Publishing Company. Vol. 1 No. 1. June
Published
2014-12-22
How to Cite
Dekiawan, H. (2014). KONVERGENSI PENERIMAAN DAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN DATA PANEL DINAMIS SPASIAL. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 17(1), 99-128. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v17i1.52
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