PENGARUH MISALIGNMENT NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN SAFEGUARDS DI ASEAN-5
Keywords:
exchange rate misalignment, non-tarif measures, safeguards, ASEAN, ACFTA
Abstract
The purposes of this study are to analyze the occurence of exchange rate misalignment and its effect on non-tariff policy in ASEAN-5. We use Panel Dynamic OLS to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate, while for determining the opportunities of the Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) such as safeguards measures;we use Conditional Fixed-Effects Logistic Regression. The results shows that the magnitude of exchange rate misalignment tends to be large when specific country has a domestic turmoil. In addition, undervalued currrency of exporting country will increase the chances of safeguards measures enforcement from partner countries.
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References
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Paul Allison. (2009). Fixed Effects Regression Models, Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, SAGE Publication.
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World Trade Report. (2012). An Inventory of Non-Tariff Measures and Services Measures.
World Trade Organization. (2014). Total Merchandise Trade Data. http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WSDBViewData.aspx?Language=E. [terhubung berkala].
World Trade Organization. (2014). Non-Tariff Measures Data. http://itip.wto.org/goods/Forms/TableView.aspx. [terhubung berkala].
Alessandro N. (2013). Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies. UNCTAD. Study series no. 56.
Alvaro A, Cesar C. (2005). Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Economic Performance. Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 315.
Bertrand C, Clemens K, Katharina R, Tom VV.( 2007). Long-Run Exchange Rate Determinants: Evidence From Eight New EU Member States, 1993-2003. Elsevier Journal of Comparative Economics, 35 (2007): 87-107.
Bank for International Settlements. (2014). Real Effective Exchange Rates Data. http://www.bis.org/statistics/eer/. [terhubung berkala].
Diallo IA. (2011). The Effects of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Real Exchange Volatility on Exports. MPRA Paper, No. 32387.
Douglas I. (2011). Trade Policy and Exchange Rates. IMF/World Bank/WTO Workshop on International Trade. The World Bank, 2 December 2011.
International Monetary Fund. (2013). Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2013.
Hamerle, A., and G. Ronning. (1995). Panel Analysis for Qualitative Variables. In Handbook of Statistical Modeling forthe Social and Behavioral Sciences, ed. G. Arminger, C. C. Clogg, and M. E. Sobel, 401–451. New York: Plenum.
Josef TY. (2008). Policy Coherence Initiative on Growth, Investment and Employment: The Case of the Philippines (Policy Coherence and Critical Development Constraints in the Philippines). Paper prepared for the International Labour Organization (ILO).
Maria-Agnes J, Jean-Christophe M, Ben S. (2012). Reputation Matters: Spillover Effects in The Enforcement of US SPS Measures. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, WPS5935.
Michael WK, Jay CS. (2008). The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Regimes: Fixes, Floats, and Flips. Elsevier Journal of International Economics, (75) 70–92.
N.A.M Naseem, Hui-Boon T, M.S Hamizah. (2008). Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia. MPRA Paper, No. 41571.
Oliver H, Sushanta M. (2009). Does The Choice of A Currency Regime Explain Real Exchange Rate Misalignment?. The AIEFS session at ASSA Annual meeting 3-5 January, 2009.
Paul Allison. (2009). Fixed Effects Regression Models, Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, SAGE Publication.
Paul RK, Maurice O, Marc JM. (2012). International Economics: Theory & Policy. Boston (US): Pearson.
Peter JM.( 2002). The Long-Run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Measurement. Macroeconomic Management: Programs and Policies. Washington DC (US): IMF. United Nations Comtrade. (2014). http://comtrade.un.org/data/. [terhubung berkala].
Vera T, Emerson M, Lucas F. (2011). Exchange Rate Misalignments and International Trade Policy:Impacts on Tariffs. Policy Dialogue: Redefining the Role of the Government in Tomorrow’s. International Trade at UNCTAD XIII Pre-Conference Event 26 – 27 March 2012.
World Bank. (2014). Official Exchange Rate (LCU per US$, period average) Data. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PA.NUS.FCRF. [terhubung berkala].
World Development Indicators. (2014). http://data.worldbank.org/indicator. [terhubung berkala].
World Integrated Trade Solution. (2014). Non-tariff Measures Data. http://wits.worldbank.org/. [terhubung berkala].
World Trade Report. (2012). An Inventory of Non-Tariff Measures and Services Measures.
World Trade Organization. (2014). Total Merchandise Trade Data. http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WSDBViewData.aspx?Language=E. [terhubung berkala].
World Trade Organization. (2014). Non-Tariff Measures Data. http://itip.wto.org/goods/Forms/TableView.aspx. [terhubung berkala].
Published
2015-11-09
How to Cite
Vindayani, D., Hakim, D., & Asmara, A. (2015). PENGARUH MISALIGNMENT NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN SAFEGUARDS DI ASEAN-5. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 18(1), 61-84. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v18i1.517
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
