INTEREST RATES AND THE ROLE OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN MAJOR SOUTHEAST ASIAN COUNTRIES
Abstract
Paper ini meneliti apakah perbedaan sistim nilai tukar yang dianut oleh negara-negara Asia Tenggara mempunyai implikasi yang signifikan terhadap bagaimana gejolak pasar keuangan internasional ditransmisikan kedalam suku bunga domestik di negara-negara tersebut. Dengan menggunakan data dari 5 negara utama di Asia Tenggara - Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, dan Thailand - kami menguji hipotesis bahwa tingkat suku bunga domestik dalam negara dengan sistim nilai tukar yang lebih fleksibel adalah lebih tidak terpengaruh oleh pasar keuangan internasional. Data yang digunakan adalah data harian dari Januari 1995 sampai dengan Desember 2003. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa sistem nilai tukar tidak mempunyai implikasi yang konklusif tentang bagaimana gejolak pasar keuangan internasional ditransmisikan ke dalam tingkat suku bunga domestik di negara-negara utama Asia Tenggara. Apapun sistem nilai tukar yang mereka anut, faktor domestik adalah merupakan faktor utama dalam pergerakan suku bunga domestik di negara-negara tersebut.
Keywords:Exchange Rate Regimes, Interest Rates, Southeast Asia.
JEL Classification: JEL Classification: E43, E52, F31, N15
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