DISINTERMEDIASI FUNGSI PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS 1997 : Faktor Permintaan Atau Penawaran Kredit, Sebuah Pendekatan Dengan Model Disequilibrium
Abstract
The goal of this paper is to analyze the determinants of bank credit declining, whether is dominated by the supply or the credit demand, post the financial crisis in Indonesia. This paper is a sort of New Keynesian approach, which pre assume the imperfectness of the credit market and hence create disequilibrium.
Using the switching regression model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation to determine the probability of supply or demand determination, the result shows the existence of excess demand of credit during the crisis period, 1997/ 1998, confirming the credit crunch situation. After the crisis, the condition is reversed, where the credit supply is higher than the credit demand. The two findings implicitely shows the inflexibility of interest rate to equalize the credit market.
JEL: D43, D82, E44, E51
Keywords : Disintermediasi, kredit, disequilibrium, maximum likelihood, persamaan simultan, switching regression
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References
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Blundel-Wignall, A. dan M. Gizycki. Credit Supply and Demand and the Australian Economy. RDP (Research Discussion Paper) No.9208. Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia. July 1992.
Borensztein, E. dan J.W. Lee. Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in Korea : Evidence from FirmLevel Data. IMF Working Paper No.WP/00/25, Februari 2000.
Demirgiic-Kunt, A., E. Detragiache, dan P. Gupta, P. Inside the Crisis : An Empirical Analysis of Banking System in Distress.IMF Working Paper No.WP/00/156, Oktober 2000.
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Gosh, A. and Gosh, S. East Asia in the Aftermath: Was there a crunch?. IMF Working Paper 1999/38, Maret 1999.
Ito, Takatoshi dan Yuri Nagataki Sasaki. Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Bank’s Behaviour. 1998. NBER Working Paper 6730.
J. Soedradjad Djiwandono. Bergulat dengan Krisis dan Pemulihan Ekonomi Indonesia. Pustaka Sinar Harapan, Jakarta. 2001.
Judge, G.G., W.E. Griffiths, R.C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, dan Tsoung-Chao Lee. The Theory and and Practice of Economterics. Second Edition. John Wileyand Sons, New York. 1985.
Laffont, J-J., and R. Garcia. Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans. Econometrica, Vol.45, No.5, Juli 1997, hlm. 1187-1204.
Lukman Hakim. Perbandingan Peranan Jalur Kredit pada Masa Sebelum dan Ketika Krisis Ekonomi 1990.1 - 2000.4. Dalam Lukman Hakim, B. Santosa, dan E. Setyaningrum (Editor). Beberapa Agenda Perekonomian Indonesia Kritik dan Solusi. Dewan Riset Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta. 2004.
Park, Yung Chul, and Jong Wha Lee. Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia, in Korean Crisis and Recovery, ed. by David T. Coe and Se-Jik Kim. International Monetery Fund, Washington. 2002.
Pazarbasioglu, C. A credit crunch? Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis. IMF Staff Paper, Vol. 44, No.3, September 1997, hlm. 315-327.
Stiglitz, J.E., dan A. Weiss. Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review, 1981. vol.71, pp.393-410.
Woo, David. In Search of Capital Crunch : Supply Factors Behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan. IMF Staff Paper No. WP/99/3, Januari 1999.
Yoshikawa, H., E. Eto dan T. Ike. Credit Crunch for Small and Medium Size Firms : Policy Analysis. Series 1. Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo. 1994.
Agung, J., B. Kusmiarso, B. Pramono, E.G. Hutapea, A. Prasmuko dan N.J. Prastowo. Credit Crunch di Indonesia Setelah Krisis : Fakta, Penyebab dan Implikasi Kebijakan. Direktorat Riset Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Moneter, Bank Indonesia. 2001.
A. Koutsoyiannis. Theory of Econometrics. Second edition. The Mac Millan Press Ltd., London and Basingstoke. 1977.
Amemiya, T. A Note on Fair and Jaffee Model. Econometrica . 1974, vol. 42, p.759-762.
Bank Indonesia. Laporan Perekonomian Indonesia 2003. Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. 2003
Bank Indonesia. Perbankan Indonesia Tahun 2002. Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. Juni 2003.
Barajas, A. dan R. Steiner. Credit Stagnation in Latin America. IMF Working Paper No.WP/02/53, Maret 2002.
Bernanke, B. and Lown, C. The Credit Crunch. Brooking Paper in Economic Activity. February, 1991.
Bester, Helmut. Screening vs Rationing in Credit Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review. 1985, Vol.75, pp.850-855.
Blundel-Wignall, A. dan M. Gizycki. Credit Supply and Demand and the Australian Economy. RDP (Research Discussion Paper) No.9208. Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia. July 1992.
Borensztein, E. dan J.W. Lee. Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in Korea : Evidence from FirmLevel Data. IMF Working Paper No.WP/00/25, Februari 2000.
Demirgiic-Kunt, A., E. Detragiache, dan P. Gupta, P. Inside the Crisis : An Empirical Analysis of Banking System in Distress.IMF Working Paper No.WP/00/156, Oktober 2000.
Ding, W., I. Domac dan G. Ferri. Is There a Credit Crunch in East Asia. World Bank Working Paper. 1998.
Domac, I, and Ferri, G. The real impact of financial shocks: evidence from the Republic of Korea. 1998. World Bank - Policy Research Working Paper Series, No.2010.
Fair, R.C. dan H.H. Kelejian. Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium : A Further Study. Econometrica, Vol.42, No.1, Januari 1974, hlm. 177-190.
Falianty, T.A. Exchange Rate Overshooting : Sebuah Studi Empiris di Indonesia dalam Sistem Nilai Tukar Mengambang. Tesis. Program Studi Ekonomi, Pasca Sarjana Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. 2003.
Gosh, A. and Gosh, S. East Asia in the Aftermath: Was there a crunch?. IMF Working Paper 1999/38, Maret 1999.
Ito, Takatoshi dan Yuri Nagataki Sasaki. Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Bank’s Behaviour. 1998. NBER Working Paper 6730.
J. Soedradjad Djiwandono. Bergulat dengan Krisis dan Pemulihan Ekonomi Indonesia. Pustaka Sinar Harapan, Jakarta. 2001.
Judge, G.G., W.E. Griffiths, R.C. Hill, H. Lutkepohl, dan Tsoung-Chao Lee. The Theory and and Practice of Economterics. Second Edition. John Wileyand Sons, New York. 1985.
Laffont, J-J., and R. Garcia. Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans. Econometrica, Vol.45, No.5, Juli 1997, hlm. 1187-1204.
Lukman Hakim. Perbandingan Peranan Jalur Kredit pada Masa Sebelum dan Ketika Krisis Ekonomi 1990.1 - 2000.4. Dalam Lukman Hakim, B. Santosa, dan E. Setyaningrum (Editor). Beberapa Agenda Perekonomian Indonesia Kritik dan Solusi. Dewan Riset Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Trisakti, Jakarta. 2004.
Park, Yung Chul, and Jong Wha Lee. Recovery and Sustainability in East Asia, in Korean Crisis and Recovery, ed. by David T. Coe and Se-Jik Kim. International Monetery Fund, Washington. 2002.
Pazarbasioglu, C. A credit crunch? Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis. IMF Staff Paper, Vol. 44, No.3, September 1997, hlm. 315-327.
Stiglitz, J.E., dan A. Weiss. Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review, 1981. vol.71, pp.393-410.
Woo, David. In Search of Capital Crunch : Supply Factors Behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan. IMF Staff Paper No. WP/99/3, Januari 1999.
Yoshikawa, H., E. Eto dan T. Ike. Credit Crunch for Small and Medium Size Firms : Policy Analysis. Series 1. Economic Planning Agency, Tokyo. 1994.
Published
2007-02-12
How to Cite
Harmanta, H., & Ekananda, D. M. (2007). DISINTERMEDIASI FUNGSI PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS 1997 : Faktor Permintaan Atau Penawaran Kredit, Sebuah Pendekatan Dengan Model Disequilibrium. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 8(1), 51 - 78. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v8i1.128
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Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan / Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
