DOES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION LEAD TO INCOME CONVERGENCE? EVIDENCE FROM CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS

  • Vaseem Akram Indian Institute of Management Jammu
  • Badri Narayan Rath Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad
Keywords: Export diversification, Economic growth, Conditional convergence

Abstract

In this study, we examine the role of export diversification in the convergence of per capita income (output). By applying the dynamic system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to a panel dataset consisting of 95 countries, we find evidence of both absolute and conditional divergence for the full sample and the subsamples based on income and regions. Thus, our findings suggest that, although high export diversification boosts the per capita income (output), it does not significantly reduce per capita income (output) gap between rich and poor countries.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Acemoglu, K.D., & Zilibotti, F. (1997). Was Promentheus Unbound by chance? Risk Diversification and Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 105, 709-751.

Ali, A.,& Siegel. (1991). Is Export Diversification The Best Way to Achieve Export Growth and Stability? A Look at Three African Countries (World Bank Working Papers No. 729). World Bank, 1991.

Galvão Jr F.A., & Gomes, R. (2007). Convergence or Divergence in Latin America? A Time Series Analysis. Applied Economics, 39, 1353-1360.

Agosin, M.R. (2007). Export Diversification and Growth in Emerging Economies (Working Paper, No 233). Departmento de Economia, Universidad de Chile.

Akram, V., & Rath, B.N. (2017). Export Diversification and Sources of Growth in Emerging Market Economies. Global Economy Journal, 17, 1-13.

Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7, 559-562.

Andrés, J., Doménech, R., & Molinas, C. (1996). Macroeconomic Performance and Convergence in OECD Countries. European Economic Review, 40, 1683–1704.

Arazmuradov, A., Martini, G., & Scotti, D. (2014). Determinants of Total Factor Productivity in Former Soviet Union Economies: A Stochastic Frontier Approach. Economic Systems, 38, 115-135.

Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and An Application to Employment Equations. Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.

Arip, M.A., Yee, L.S., & Karim, B.A. (2010). Export Diversification and Economic Growth in Malaysia’. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/20588/

Ayala, A., Cunado, J., & Alana, L.A.G. (2013). Real Convergence, Empirical Evidence for Latin America. Applied Economics, 22, 3220–3229.

Azomahou, T.T., Ouardighi, J.E., Van, P.N., & Pham, T.K.C., (2011). Testing Convergence of European Regions: A Semiparametric Approach. Economic Modelling, 28, 1202–1210.

Balaguer, J., & Cantavella-Jordá, M. (2004). Export Composition and Spanish Economic Growth: Evidence from the 20th Century. Journal of Policy Planning, 26, 165-179.

Baldwin, R.E. (1992). Measurable Dynamic Gains from Trade. Journal of Political Economy, 100, 162-74.

Bandyopadhyay, S. (2012). Convergence Clubs in Incomes Across Indian States: Is There Evidence of A Neighbors Effect? Economics Letters, 116, 565–570.

Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (2003). Economic Growth. The MIT Press, Cambridge, London.

Barro, R.J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1995). Economic Growth. Fourth ed. MIT Press, New York.

Baumol, W.J. (1986). Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show. The American Economic Review, 76, 1072–1085.

Ben-David D. (1993). Equalizing Exchange, Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 653-679.

Ben-David D. (1996). Trade and Convergence Among Countries. Journal of International Economics, 40, 279-298.

Ben-David D., & Loewy M.B. (1998). Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence. Journal of Economic Growth, 3, 143-170.

Bernard, A., & Jones, C. (1996). Productivity Across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 78, 135-46

Boako, G., & Alagidede, P. (2016). African Stock Markets Convergence, Regional and Global Analysis. Finance Research Letters, 000, 1–5.

Berthélemy, J.C., & Söderling, L. (2001). The Role of Capital Accumulation, Adjustment and Structural Changes for Economic Take-Off, Empirical Evidence from African Growth Episodes’, World Development, 29, 323-343.

Berthélemy, J.C., & Chauvin, S. (2000). Structural Changes in Asia and Growth Prospects After The Crisis (Working paper no. 00-09). CEPII.

Carmignani, F. (2007). A Note on Income Converge Effects in Regional Integration Agreements. Economics Letters, 94, 361-366.

Castellacci, F., & Archibugi, D. (2008). The Technology Clubs, The Distribution of Knowledge Across Nations. Research Policy, 37, 1659–1673.

Ceylan, R., & Abiyev, V. (2016). An Examination of Convergence Hypothesis for EU-15 Countries. International Review of Economics and Finance, 45, 96–105.

Chapsaa, X., Tsananab, E., & Katrakilidisb, C. (2015). Growth and convergence in the EU-15: More evidence from the Cohesion Countries. Procedia Economics and Finance, 33, 55– 63.

Chatterjee, P., & Shukayev. M. (2012). A stochastic Dynamic Model of Trade And Growth: Convergence and Diversification. Journal of Economic Dynamics Control, 36, 416–432.

Chien M.S., Lee C.C., Hu, T.C., & Hu, H.T. (2015). Dynamic Asian Stock Market Convergence: Evidence from Dynamic Cointegration Analysis among China and ASEAN-5. Economic Modelling, 51, 84–98.

Chowdhury, K. (2004). Convergence of Per Capita GDP Across SAARC Countries (University of Wollongong Economics Working Paper Series 2004, WP 04-07). University of Wollongong.

Cuñado J., & Pérez de Gracia, F. (2006). Real convergence in Africa in the secondhalf of the 20th century. Journal of Economics and Business, 58, 153-167.

Cyrus, T. (2004). Does convergence cause trade, or does trade cause convergence? Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 13, 397–418.

Dennis A.C., & Shepherd B.A. (2007). Trade Costs, Barriers to Entry, and Export Diversification in Developing Countries (Policy Research Working Paper 4368). The World Bank.

Deardorff, A.V. (2001). Rich and Poor Countries in Neoclassical Trade and Growth. The Economic Journal, 111, 277–94.

Deardorff, A.V. (1986). Firless Firwoes: How Preferences Can Interfere with The Theorems of International Trade. Journal of International Economics, 20, 131-142.

Devpura, N., & Narayan, P.K. (2020). Hourly Oil Price Volatility: The Role of COVID-19. Energy Research Letters, 1, 13683. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.13683

Di Liberto, A., & Symons, J. (2003). Some Econometric Issues in Convergence Regressions. The Manchester School, 71, 293–307.

Dobson, S., & Ramlogan, C. (2002). Economic Growth and Convergence in Latin America. Journal of Development Studies, 38, 83–104.

Evans, P., & Karras, G. (1996). Convergence Revisited. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 249 265.

Felbermayr, G.J. (2005). Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on The Trade-Income Relation. Review of World Economics, 141, 583–611.

Ferreira, A. (2000). Convergence in Brazil, Recent Trends and Long-Run Prospects. Applied Economics, 32, 479-489.

Fuente, D.L.A. (2003). Convergence Equations and Income Dynamics: The Sources of OECD Convergence 1970–1995. Economica, 70, 655–671.

Fung, M.K. (2009). Domestic Credit to Private Sector and Economic Growth: Convergence or Divergence? Journal of International Money and Finance, 28, 56–67.

Ghosh, M., Ghoshray, A., & Malki, I. (2013). Regional Divergence and Club Convergence in India. Economic Modelling, 30, 733–742.

Grossman, G., & E. Helpman. (1991). Innovation and Growth in The Global Economy. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Guetat I., & Serranito F. (2007). Income Convergence within The MENA Countries: A Panel Unit Root Approach. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 46, 685-706.

Ha, J., & Lee, S.H. (2016). Demographic Dividend and Asia’s Economic Convergence Towards The US. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing.

Hammouda, H.B., Karingi, S.N., Njuguna, A.E., & Jallab, M.S. (2010). Growth, Productivity and Diversification in Africa. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 33, 125-146.

Haroon, O., & Rizvi, S.A.R. (2020). Flatten The Curve and Stock Market Liquidity— An Inquiry into Emerging Economies, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2151-2161. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1784716.

Herzer, D., & Lehman, N. (2006). What Does Export Diversification Do For Growth? An Econometric Analysis. Applied Economic Letters, 38, 1825-1838.

Helpman, E., & Krugman, P.R. (1985). Market Structure And Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and The International Economy. Cambridge, MIT Press.

Ho, S. Y., & Iyke, B. N. (2020). The Determinants of Economic Growth in Ghana: New Empirical Evidence. Global Business Review, 21, 626-644.

Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.

Iradian, G. (2003). Armenia: The Road to Sustained Rapid Growth Cross-Country Evidence (IMF Working Paper No. 03/11). International Monetary Fund, Washington D. C.

Islam, N. (1995). Growth Empirics, A Panel Data Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 1127–1170.

Iyke, B. N. (2017). Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in The CEE Countries? Review of Economic Perspectives, 17, 3-24.

Iyke, B. N. (2018). The Real Effect of Currency Misalignment On Productivity Growth: Evidence From Middle-Income Economies. Empirical Economics, 55, 1637-1659.

Iyke, B.N. (2020a). COVID-19: The Reaction of US Oil And Gas Producers To The Pandemic. Energy Research Letters, 1, 13912. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.13912

Iyke, B.N. (2020b). The Disease Outbreak Channel of Exchange Rate Return Predictability: Evidence from COVID-19, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2277-2297. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1784718.

Juhro, S. M., Narayan, P. K., Iyke, B. N., & Trisnanto, B. (2020). Is There A Role for Islamic Finance and R&D In Endogenous Growth Models in The Case of Indonesia? Pacific-Basin Finance Journal. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.

pacfin.2020.101297.

King, A., & Dobson, C.R. (2015). International Income Convergence: Is Latin America Actually Different? Economic Modelling, 49, 212–222.

Kumar, S., & Managi, S. (2012). Productivity and Convergence in India: A State- Level Analysis. Journal of Asian Economics, 23, 548–559.

Kumar,S., & Pacheco, G. (2012). What Determines The Long Run Growth Rate in Kenya? Journal of Policy Modelling, 34, 705-718.

Laurini, M., Andrade, E., & Pereira, P.L.V. (2005). Income Convergence Clubs for Brazilian Municipalities: A Non-Parametric Analysis. Applied Economics, 37, 2099-2118.’

Lederman, D.W.F., & Maloney (2007). Trade structure and growth in natural resources: Neither curse nor destiny, (ed. Daniel Lederman and William Maloney., pp. 15- 39). Washington DC, World Bank and Stanford University Press.

Leamer, E.E., & Levinsohn, J. (1996). International trade theory: The evidence in Ronald W. Jones and Peter B. Kenen, (eds. Handbook of Inetrnationl Economics, 3).

Lee, J. (2009). Trade, FDI, and Productivity Convergence: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach in 25 Countries. Japan and the World Economy, 21, 226–238.

Li, K.W., Zhou, X., & Pan Z. (2016). Cross-Country Output Convergence and Growth: Evidence from Varying Coefficient Nonparametric Method. Economic Modelling, 55, 32–41.

Liu, X. (2009). Trade and Income Convergence: Sorting Out The Causality. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 18, 169–195.

Maasoumi E., & Wang L. (2007). Economic Reform, Growth and Convergence in China. Econometrics Journal, 10, 1-21.

Mankiw, N.G., Romer, D., & Weil, D.N. (1992). A Contribution to The Empirics of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407–437.

Mau, K., (2015). Export Diversification and Income Differences Reconsidered: The Extensive Product Margin in Theory. Review of World Economics, 152, 351-381.

McCoskey, S.K. (2002). Convergence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Nonstationary Panel Data Approach. Applied Economics, 34, 819-829.

Mello, M. & Perrelli, R. (2003). Growth Equations: A Quantile Regression Exploration. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 643–667.

Miller, S.M., & Upadhyay, M.P. (2002). Total Factor Productivity and The Convergence Hypothesis. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24, 267–286.

Milanovic, B. (2006). Global income inequality: What it is and why it matters. Policy Research (Working Paper; No. 3865). World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/8344 License: CCBY 3.0 IGO.

Milutinović, S. (2016). The Effects of International Trade on Income Convergence of The European Union Member States. Industrija, 44. https://doi.org/10.5937/industrija44-9005.

Mishra, A.K., Rath, B.N., and Dash, A.K. (2020). Does The Indian Financial MarketNosedive Because of The COVID-19 Outbreak, in Comparison to After Demonetisation and The GST? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2162-2180; https://doi.org/10/1080/1540496X.2020.1785425.

Murthy, N.R.V., & Chien, I.S. (1997). The Empirics of Economic Growth for OECD Countries: Some New Findings. Economics Letters, 55, 425–429.

Murthy, N.R.V., & Upkolo, V. (1999). A Test of The Conditional Convergence Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from African Countries. Economics Letters, 65, 249–253.

Nakamura, H. (2001). An Empirical Reexamination of The Solow Growth Model. Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, 15, 323–340.

Narayan, P. K. (2020a). Oil Price News and COVID-19—Is There Any Connection? Energy Research Letters, 1, 13176. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.13176

Narayan, P. K. (2020b). Did Bubble Activity Intensify During COVID-19? Asian Economics Letters,1. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17654

Narayan, P. K. (2020c). Has COVID-19 Changed Exchange Rate Resistance to Shocks? Asian Economics Letters, 1. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17389

Narayan, P. K., Devpura, N., & Hua, W. (2020). Japanese Currency and Stock Market—What Happened during The COVID-19 Pandemic?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 68, 191-198.

Narayan, P. K., Phan, D. H. B., & Liu, G. (2020). COVID-19 Lockdowns, Stimulus Packages, Travel Bans, and Stock Returns. Finance Research Letters, 101732. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101732.

Narayan, P.K., Sagarika, M., & Narayan, S. (2011). Do Market Capitalization and Stocks Traded Converge? New Global Evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, 35, 2771–2781.

Neto, D.G., & Veiga, F.J. (2013). Financial Globalization, Convergence and Growth: The Role of Foreign Direct Investment. Journal of International Money and Finance, 37, 161–186.

Nonneman, W., & Vanhoudt, P. (1996). A Further Augmentation of The Solow Model and The Empirics of Economic Growth for OECD Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 943–953.

Parikh, A., & Shibata, M. (2004). Does trade liberalization accelerate convergencein per capita incomes in developing countries? Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 33–48.

Pen, Y.L. (2011). A Pair-Wise Approach to Output Convergence between European Regions. Economic Modelling, 28, 955–964.

Phan, D.H.B., & Narayan, P.K. (2020). Country Responses and The Reaction of The Stock Market to COVID-19—A Preliminary Exposition, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2138-2150. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1784719.

Prabheesh, K.P., Padhan, R., & Garg, B. (2020). COVID-19 and The Oil Price—Stock Market Nexus: Evidence from Net Oil-Importing Countries. Energy Research Letters, 1, 13745. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.13745.

Próchniak, M., & Witkowski, B. (2013). Time Stability of The Beta Convergence Among EU Countries: Bayesian Model Averaging Perspective. Economic Modelling, 30, 322–333.

Rath, B.N. (2016). Does The Digital Divide Across Countries Lead to Convergence? New International Evidence. Economic Modelling, 58, 75–82.

Rath, B.N., & Akram, V. (2017). Export Diversification and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Case Of South Asian Region. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 19, 196-210.

Rath, B.N. (2019). Does Total Factor Productivity Converge among Asean Countries? Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 21, 477 – 494.

Rath, B.N., & Akram, V. (2019). A Reassessment of Total Factor Productivity Convergence: Evidence from Cross-Country Analysis. Economic Modelling, 82, 87-98.

Rath, B.N., & Akram, V. (2020). Does COVID‐19 Outbreak Cause Spot Electricity Price Discovery in India? Journal of Public Affairs, https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2439.

Romer, P.M. (1990). Endogenous technological change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 5. The problem of development, A conference of the institute for the study of free enterprise systems, S71-S102.

Rossini, G., & Burattoni, M. (1996). Trade and Convergence between Rich and Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence on Macro Determinants of Specialization. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 132, 75-96.

Sachs, J.D., & Warner, A. (1995). Economic Reform and The Process of Global Integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 1–118.

Salisu, A.A., & Akanni, L.O. (2020) Constructing A Global Fear Index for COVID-19 Pandemic. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2213-2230. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785424

Salisu, A. A., & Sikiru, A. A. (2020) Pandemics and The Asia-Pacific Islamic Stocks. Asian Economics Letters, 1. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.17413.

Samuelson, P. (1948). International Trade and The Equalization of Factor Prices. Economic Journal, 58, 63-184.

Serranito, F. (2013). Heterogeneous Technology and The Technological Catching-Up Hypothesis: Theory and Assessment in The Case of MENA Countries. Economic Modelling, 30, 685-697.

Seya, H., Tsutsumi, M., & Yamagata, Y. (2012). Income Convergence in Japan: A Bayesian Spatial Durbin Model Approach. Economic Modelling, 29, 60–71.

Slaughter, M.J. (1997). Per Capita Income Convergence and The Role of International Trade. American Economic Review, 87, 194-199.

Slaughter, M.J. (1995). The Antebellum Transportation Revolution and Factor-Price Convergence (NBER Working Paper No. W5303). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=225367.

Slaughter, M.J (2001). Trade Liberalization and Per Capita Income Convergence: A Difference-in- Differences Analysis. Journal of International Economics, 55, 203–228.

Smolny, W. (2000). Post-war Growth, Productivity Convergence and Reconstruction. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62, 589–606.

Solow, R.M., (1956). A Contribution to Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal Of Economics, 70,65-64.

Song, E.Y. (2014). Trade and Speed of Convergence. Review of Development Economics, 18, 1-12.

Stehrer, R., & Wörz, J. (2003). Technological Convergence and Trade Patterns. Review of World Economics, 139, 191–219.

Stroomer, C.N., & Giles, D.E.A. (2003). Income Convergence and Trade Openness, Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence’ (Econometrics Working Paper EWP0304). Department of Economics, University of Victoria.

Su, J.J. (2003). Convergence Clubs among 15 OECD Countries. Applied Economics Letters, 10, 113-118.

Swan, T.W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record, 32, 334-361.

Trofimov, I.D. & Saad, K.Y. (2018). Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America (MPRA Paper No. 87598). Munich Personal RePEc Archive. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/87598/.

Tunali, C.B., & Yilanci, V. (2010). Are Per Capita Incomes of MENA Countries Converging or Diverging? Physica, 389, 4855–4862.

Ucar, N., & Guler, H. (2010). Testing Stochastic Income Convergence in Seasonal Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 27, 422–431.

Vidya, C. T., & Prabheesh, K.P. (2020) Implications of COVID-19 Pandemic on The Global Trade Networks. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 56, 2408-2421. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1785426.

Vollmecke, D, Bjorn, J., & Philipp, M. (2015). FDI, Human Capital and Income Convergencemdash: Evidence for European Regions. Economic Systems, 40, 288-307.

Wane, A.A., (2004). Growth and Convergence in WAEMU Countries (Working Paper, No. 198). IMF, Washington D.C.

Young, A.T., Higgins, M.J., & Levy, D. (2008). Sigma Convergence Versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from U.S. County-Level Data. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40, 1083-1093

Zhang, Z., Liu, A., & Yao, S. (2001). Convergence of China’s Regional Incomes 1952–1997. China Economic Review, 12, 243–258.

PlumX Metrics

Published
2020-10-31
How to Cite
Akram, V., & Rath, B. (2020). DOES EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION LEAD TO INCOME CONVERGENCE? EVIDENCE FROM CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS. Buletin Ekonomi Moneter Dan Perbankan, 23(3), 319 - 346. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i3.1251
Section
Articles