DEFAULT RISK DAN PENJAMINAN KREDIT UKM
Abstract
This paper asserts that the credit guarantee for the Usaha Kecil Menengah (UKM, Small-Medium Scale Enterprise) is a necessity to encourage the bank to allocate the credit. This allocation requires the identification of the default risk accompanying the credit allocation, after which, we can define the guarantee capacity of the Lembaga Penjaminan Kredit (LPK) and the risk sharing among the parties.
Using the Merton method, the result shows the default risk of UKM is 0.7%. Next, we apply this value in the gearing ratio method to calculate the credit guarantee capacity, 142 times of the equity owned by the LPK. On practice, this large capacity should be rationalized to maintain the sustainability of the LPK it self.
We analyze five different credit-guarantee schemes based on the involvement of different institutions. The best scheme for a certain region should consider the fund availability and the quality of human resources on the corresponding region.
JEL: D81, E51, H81
Keyword: Credit guarantee, default risk, Small-Medium Scale Enterprise, UKM, Merton Method, gearing ratio method
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